Market Outlook #259 (thirteenth March 2024)
Good day and welcome to the 259th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I will probably be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polygon, Uniswap, Cosmos, Arweave, Vulcan Solid, enqAI, Banana Gun, League of Kingdoms and BuildAI. All of those had been readers requests this week, which is nice to see! For the newer, purely on-chain performs, I’ve targeted solely on the USD pair, as there’s little or no price-history out there.
As ever, if in case you have any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know by way of e-mail or within the feedback.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $72,931
Market Cap: $1.435trn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we will see that worth closed final week proper on that prior all-time excessive at $69k, on rising quantity. Since, buying and selling this week has seen Bitcoin enter worth discovery, pushing into $73.7k, under which it’s at present sat. Momentum indicators are very a lot bullish at current, with no indicators of exhaustion on this timeframe simply but. We now additionally haven’t any resistance ranges, given worth discovery, and so the primary main stage overhead of any concern will probably be $100k, being arguably essentially the most important psychological quantity in its historical past alongside the 1.618 fib extension of the bear market. Little doubt we are going to see loads of volatility as we strategy that stage. We will additionally see from the weekly that worth has been in a parabolic advance because the November 2022 backside, and most just lately broke and closed above channel resistance at $53k, after which it has not seemed again, steepening the curve of the advance. If this parabola holds agency into the halving, we’re taking a look at $100k by Could, as absurd as that will have sounded 6 months in the past. Such is the power of the bid. Now, if we occur to seek out resistance within the subsequent few weeks and break that parabola, I’d then count on a interval of prolonged consolidation earlier than the following leg greater begins, however let’s cross that bridge once we come to it. For now, so long as this week closes firmly via $69k, I feel the following month is broadly up solely (with shallow however sharp wicks to deleverage the market).
Turning to the each day, we will see that there’s some momentum divergence forming right here as we’ve emerged into worth discovery, however nothing that has been confirmed but – this might very nicely simply maintain grinding greater till momentum makes contemporary highs and invalidates any exhaustion. That stated, if we reject under $75k (the 1.618 extension of the present development) after which break and shut again inside $69k, we’ve confluence between worth and momentum for a deeper pull-back, probably again in direction of $60k to retest that assist stage earlier than one other breakout try. Assuming the development holds – which is my view right here – we should always see some minor rejection at $75k, a higher-low above $69k after which continuation in direction of $85k by the top of the month, invalidating the present perceived weak point in RSI. Not a lot else so as to add right here at current.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $3992.50 (0.0546 BTC)
Market Cap: $479.451bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair continues to tear greater on regularly rising quantity week-on-week, having examined $3350 as assist final week and bounced all the way in which into the weekly shut simply shy of $3900. Value is now consolidating early this week round that $3950 resistance stage, and any acceptance via right here opens up continuation into the final stage earlier than all-time highs, at $4385. Nothing to recommend exhaustion right here on the upper timeframes both. If we drop into the each day, we will see a bit little bit of divergence on the latest push greater, however the development has been relentless and steep, providing solely sharp however temporary wicks to purchase into. We bought one other a type of a few days in the past, and until we now shut again under $3950 and switch it into resistance I’m anticipating this development to persist into $4385 earlier than the eventual breakout and worth discovery in a couple of weeks time. Final cycle, it took 48 days for ETH to make a contemporary all-time excessive after Bitcoin, however on condition that this cycle is progressing extra quickly than the final I’d not be shocked to see ETH at $5k in early April.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that the pair continues to cut round between the 200wMA and 360dMA, however worth is forming higher-lows for now. So long as the 360wMA at 0.053 holds, this construction will stay intact and I’d count on an upside breakout past 0.06 to observe shortly. If, nevertheless, we shut under 0.053, it’s probably we see the underside of this cluster swept into 0.049 once more to retest that low as assist, with the opportunity of a wick under that if BTC/USD goes on a tear in direction of $100k earlier than a pointy reversal. Trying on the each day, we will see this construction clearly, with the pair now winding tighter with decrease highs and higher-lows, probably culminating in some volatility both aspect of 0.053 and 0.058 within the subsequent week or two. I do suppose the authentic breakout and continuation greater is shut – simply not sure at current whether or not we see a front-run of BTC consolidating after a run-up earlier than marking the underside, or whether or not the pair wicks under all of this assist after which reverses sharply just like the January price-action (fake-out) showcased…
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $1.28 (1752 satoshis)
Market Cap: $11.907bn
Ideas: Starting with MATIC/USD, we will see that the pair has bullish weekly construction following final week’s agency shut via $1.10, establishing the uptrend and opening up continuation into the 2023 highs at $1.56. Weekly momentum can be trying first rate right here for additional upside and this week has seen worth discover assist at that prior resistance round $1.10 and bounce. When you’re holding MATIC longs right here, I’d look to hedge round $1.40 and reopen publicity on a clear breakout via $1.60 for the remainder of the cycle, as there’s a variety of resistance up right here, so we might see some volatility. However if you happen to’re in spot, truthfully simply sitting in your arms and letting the market drag this via $1.56 is your finest wager, with $2 as the first goal after that stage is cleared. I don’t suppose MATIC will probably be an outperformer this cycle relative to different large-caps given its efficiency final cycle, however I’d not be shocked in any respect to see some minor worth discovery via $3 earlier than the cycle peaks. Turning to the each day, we will see some divergence in momentum right here, very like BTC and ETH, however given the proximity to main resistance right here I’d be extra involved, as defined prior. If we do reject off this $1.31-1.43 vary, I’d not be shocked to see $1.10 retested to mark out a higher-low within the broader development earlier than continuation via $1.56.
MATIC/BTC, we will see how worth swept the underside of the multi-year vary at 1717 satoshis into 1550 however closed again above the vary final week, now holding it as assist. This might act as a classical spring formation, from which we might see worth rally via 2100 satoshis over the following couple of weeks, turning weekly construction bullish. If as a substitute we see lacklustre price-action this week and assist fails as BTC strikes greater, I’d not wish to personal Matic whatever the Greenback pair, given there’s zero assist under and we’d be seeing no indicators of power at a key historic stage. All to play for right here…
Uniswap:
UNI/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
UNI/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $14.08 (19,270 satoshis)
Market Cap: $10.62bn
Ideas: Starting with the weekly timeframe for UNI/USD, we will see that worth rallied via $13 into $17.50 as resistance final week however rejected, nonetheless closing firmly above that massive historic stage that preceded capitulation in 2022. This could now act as assist this week, and in that case I’d count on one other crack at $17.50 to observe, which is just a minor resistance stage – above that, nevertheless, we’ve the 38.2% fib and prior resistance round $20, adopted by the 50% fib and main historic stage at $25. I’d count on to see some kind of native high between these ranges for the following pullback and consolidation earlier than continuation greater. Trying on the each day, we will see some minor divergence on momentum however construction is tremendous clear right here, with resistance turning into assist as we push greater. So long as we don’t see the pair shut again under $13 this week, up solely continues. If we do shut under that stage, I’d look to purchase blood as near $10 because the market will give me, however I’d not count on a lot, to be trustworthy.
Turning to UNI/BTC, we will see that worth has turned weekly construction bullish and is now simply consolidating round prior resistance at 17.5k satoshis. Weekly momentum is trending greater and we’re very a lot trying prepared for extra upside within the coming weeks. If we drop into the each day for extra readability, we will see that the 360dMA is now performing as assist, as is prior resistance at 18.9k satoshis. If this space between 17.5k and 19k satoshis can maintain, I’d count on 35k satoshis to be the following goal because the 1.618 extension of the development. Solely under 17.5k would there be any purpose to get bearish given the implications for market construction. Nothing else so as to add right here – that is very clear.
Cosmos:
ATOM/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ATOM/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $13.65 (18,710 satoshis)
Market Cap: $5.318bn
Ideas: Starting with ATOM/USD, we will see related construction to MATIC, with a higher-low in October 2023 above the Could 2022 capitulation low resulting in a shift to bullish weekly construction and the formation of an uptrend. This development was solidified final week with a detailed via trendline resistance from the September 2022 highs. Weekly RSI can be making contemporary highs however worth is now pushing up into the 200wMA at $14, simply shy of the multi-year resistance cluster between $14.60-16. This, very like MATIC, places you in a little bit of a pickle if you happen to’re levered closely and lengthy: there could possibly be a violent response off this overhead resistance, so in all probability finest to hedge up right here and reopen lengthy publicity via $16 if that’s the way you’re taking part in this, however if you happen to’re holding spot then sit in your arms till ultimately that stage breaks and ‘simple mode’ begins in direction of $20 as the following resistance. Long run, I count on this one to push again into all-time highs, however undecided about large durations of worth discovery via $47.
Turning to ATOM/BTC, we will see that the pair has been in a downtrend since September 2022, most just lately breaking under assist at 20k satoshis to seek out assist at that historic 17.8k stage, which marked the underside in 2019. We do have some indicators of development exhaustion right here as we’ve approached this stage and subsequently the opportunity of reversal, however no precise construction but to substantiate this. If we break and shut under 17.8k, I’d count on the all-time lows at 14.2k satoshis to be swept earlier than any significant reversal begins. Trying on the each day for readability, I’ve marked out what we might even see if this 17.8k stage is to carry, which is a pointy sweep via the extent adopted by a reclaim and rally via 20.4k satoshis into 22.7k satoshis, then forming a higher-low again above that 20.4k satoshi space – if we see this, I’m on board for ATOM outperformance going ahead. Till then, not one I’m eager to carry with so many higher alternatives current.
Arweave:
AR/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
AR/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $37.97 (52,140 satoshis)
Market Cap: $2.491bn
Ideas: If we glance firstly at AR/USD, we will see that worth has been on a tear the previous few weeks, with final week bouncing off resistance turned assist at $23 and pushing up so far as the 50% fib retracement of the bear market at $48 earlier than closing the week out at $41. We now have no indicators of exhaustion on the weekly and loads of quantity on this most up-to-date push greater, however I’d not be shocked to see some consolidation right here above $34 and under $44 the remainder of this week. As quickly as we shut above $44 on the weekly, I feel we’re gonna see acceleration in direction of $72 as the following main resistance stage earlier than contemporary all-time highs later this 12 months. Dropping into the each day, very like others cash we will see some exhaustion on the final push greater however nothing structurally to point a lot decrease costs are inbound . Fairly, I count on a higher-low to kind above prior resistance at $34. If that stage does fail, I feel we commerce again in direction of $27.50, the place there’s loads of demand. To the upside, simply getting a clear break via final week’s highs will open up important upside, as apart from the 61.8% fib at $59, there actually isn’t a lot overhead resistance earlier than $72.
Turning to AR/BTC, we will see that weekly construction is firmly bullish and worth has just lately examined the 38.2% fib of the bar market at 68k satoshis, earlier than rejecting and now consolidating between reclaimed assist at 50k and resistance round 65k satoshis. Once more, so long as that 50k stage now holds as assist, I feel we simply proceed to push greater within the subsequent week or two in direction of trendline resistance from the all-time highs and the 50% fib at 85.6k satoshis. Trying on the each day, the image is basically the identical because it was for the Greenback pair, with some momentum divergence right here however construction nonetheless trying strong for a higher-low above that 44-50k satoshi vary. Until we see 37.8k fail, each day construction remains to be bullish and the development is undamaged, so no purpose to overcomplicate this to be trustworthy…
Vulcan Solid:
PYR/USD
Day by day:
PYR/BTC
Day by day:
Value: $9,47 (13,001 satoshis)
Market Cap: $226.443mn
Ideas: I’ll focus solely right here on the Greenback pair for Vulcan Solid.
PYR/USD, we will see that the pair emerged from a multi-year vary in November 2023, turning vary resistance into assist at $5.50. Value then rallied into $9.10, discovered resistance and retraced, retesting that vary resistance and forming a low above the 200dMA. Since, worth has continued the development greater, rallying via $9.10 final week into the 23.6% fib of the bear market round prior assist at $10.78, the place we’ve discovered some resistance. I’d count on to see some consolidation right here however for a higher-low to kind above $8, resulting in a breakout via $10.78, with $16 as the following goal past that. I’m nonetheless holding my spot bag from that vary and I’m searching for the 38.2% fib to be tagged at $18.60 earlier than I start contemplating promoting partials and scaling out, with a view to carry some for worth discovery past $51 in a full-blown gaming mania sooner or later on this cycle. If you’re on the sidelines trying to get in, I’d be contemplating something near $8 as a great entry with invalidation at $5.50 and that $18 space as a primary goal.
enqAI:
ENQAI/USD
Day by day:
Value: $0.099 (136 satoshis)
Market Cap: $95.036mn
Ideas: As enqAI has solely been buying and selling for a couple of months, we are going to look solely on the Greenback pair right here.
ENQAI/USD, we will see that worth initially shaped resistance at $0.041 earlier than retracing into an all-time low at $0.0068 shortly after buying and selling started. This marked out the underside, from which the pair then consolidated for a month between a higher-low at $0.0097 and resistance at $0.023. This vary gave method in February, starting ENQAI’s first bull cycle, with worth then making contemporary highs via $0.041 and now grinding greater inside a channel, forming an all-time excessive every week in the past round $0.15. We now have since retraced to the underside of the channel and prior resistance at $0.084, performing as assist. That is the extent bulls wish to see maintain, as a breakdown under this stage and thru the underside of the channel would open up the probability of a deeper retracement again in direction of that $0.041 stage to retest it as assist earlier than continuation greater can start. If this space does maintain, nevertheless, we’re taking a look at $0.22 as the following main goal because the 1.618 extension of the development, someday late in March. If that is vertical accumulation earlier than a parabola/blow-off high begins, we should always see the highest of the channel give method and switch into assist, resulting in sharper rallies greater from there. On the finish of the day, we’re nonetheless pretty early within the AI crypto cycle and it’s probably these valuations change into rather more ridiculous earlier than the cycle peaks, so holding this while its in worth discovery and simply sitting in your arms is sensible to me.
Banana Gun:
BANANA/USD
Day by day:
Value: $35.99 (49,410 satoshis)
Market Cap: $86.186mnn
Ideas: Once more, as Banana Gun has solely been buying and selling for a couple of months, let’s give attention to the Greenback pair.
BANANA/USD, we will see that early price-action in September noticed worth rally off assist at $5.38 into resistance at $14, earlier than retracing to kind a contemporary all-time low at $5 after which reclaiming $5.38 as assist. Subsequently, the pair started its first bull cycle and rallied via $14 into $18.77 in December, earlier than retracing right into a higher-low at $8.18 in January. We now have since been on a constant development greater, with a parabolic advance at present in play. Value rallied into all-time highs a few days in the past at $39 and has been grinding greater inside a channel (much like ENQAI) since mid-February. I’d count on to see this development persist right here and the rallies get steeper, so long as we don’t break and shut under $30. If that stage holds, I feel we see continuation into $48 later this month, adopted by some kind of blow-off high / parabola break someday in April, earlier than a interval of consolidation and correction earlier than what’s going to probably be the ‘actual’ blow-off high each time BTC/USD has marked a high for this cycle. The choice state of affairs is that it simply continues to cling to this parabola and grind greater via April above $80 and past, however I’m leaning much less in direction of this view at current.
League of Kingdoms:
LOKA/USD
Day by day:
LOKA/BTC
Day by day:
Value: $0.424 (583 satoshis)
Market Cap: $48.627mn
Ideas: As each pairs for LOKA look very related, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
LOKA/USD, we will see that the venture launched throughout the bear market and suffered a 97% drawdown from the $5.50 all-time excessive in April 2022, falling all the way in which into $0.17 in September 2023, which marked out the underside. Value then reclaimed assist at $0.19 and commenced turning each day construction bullish, rallying for months till it hit the 360dMA at $0.34 and rejected twice, retracing off that stage into the 200dMA to kind a higher-low above $0.19 in February. From there, the pair has continued to rally, breaking via the 360dMA and turning it into assist for the primary time in its historical past. We now have pushed from that stage into prior assist at $0.45, under which we are actually consolidating. I’d count on to see the formation of a higher-low above $0.34 now, probably nearer to $0.38, and worth to interrupt via $0.45 within the subsequent week or two, main an enormous vary of upside to be captured earlier than the following main resistance. I will probably be trying to purchase acceptance above $0.45 with a view to carry into the $1.46 stage – the 23.6% fib of the bear market and prior assist turned resistance.
BuildAI:
BUILD/USD
4H:
Value: $0.51 (686 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.298mn
Ideas: As BuildAI has solely been buying and selling for a couple of weeks, I’ve opted for the 4H chart right here of the Greenback pair for evaluation, given how little price-history is accessible.
BUILD/USD, we will see related price-action to early ENQAI, with a rally into resistance at $0.45, adopted by the primary correction and consolidation above assist at $0.15 (a 66% drawdown) after which the start of a bull cycle earlier this month off that assist stage. Value rallied via resistance at $0.31, turning it into assist, then cleared $0.45 making contemporary all-time highs. Since, we’ve continued to push greater into $0.85 because the all-time excessive, however there are some indicators of exhaustion right here at current. It is very important be conscious of the truth that it is a 4H chart, nevertheless, so exhaustion is anticipated after a few weeks of rallying greater. We now have reclaimed resistance at $0.71 forming that lower-high, however at present worth is holding above prior highs turned assist at $0.45. This might very nicely mark the underside right here as this cluster of assist has been swept right into a key stage and worth has discovered demand, and in that case we should always see a higher-low kind above $0.50 this week resulting in continuation via $0.85 into worth discovery, with $1.25 as a goal past that. If, nevertheless, we want a bigger correction right here, $0.62 ought to now act as reclaimed resistance, forming one other decrease excessive, and worth ought to break under $0.45 from there, opening up a transfer into the earlier mid-range at $0.31 (which can be the 78.6% fib retracement of this complete rally *and* across the similar drawdown because the earlier correction). If we get near $0.31, that will be a great entry for anybody trying to maintain this for a cycle.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions under, or e-mail me immediately at [email protected].
