Market Outlook #260 (twenty first March 2024)
Good day and welcome to the 260th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I will probably be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Fantom, Illuvium and LooksRare, a few which had been reader requests. It’s a barely shorter publish this week specializing in extra of the actions of the majors – again to often scheduled programming from Monday.
As ever, you probably have any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know by way of e-mail or within the feedback.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Each day:
Value: $65,405
Market Cap: $1.285trn
Ideas: Nicely, what just a few days it has been…
If we start by trying on the weekly for BTC/USD, we are able to see that worth closed final week proper under the earlier all-time excessive at $68.4k, having depraved into contemporary highs at $73.7k earlier than rejecting. Value has since additionally rejected off that weekly open and offered off in the direction of $59.2k, bouncing above it this week and now consolidating proper round prior resistance turned help at $64.9k, which is a big degree to carry: this was the April 2021 excessive and holding above it right here would look very very similar to the breakout, rejection and retest from the earlier cycle’s all-time excessive break. Additional, holding right here confirms that the present parabola stays intact, main to cost discovery in April and Might till we see the parabola break in some unspecified time in the future. On this timeframe, there actually isn’t so much to be involved with simply but. We have now an everyday pull-back from crucial degree on the chart after an enormous run-up that constructed up plenty of leverage out there. This has just about been eviscerated this previous couple of weeks and it’s now a case of holding these increased timeframe help ranges and persevering with increased, for my part. Now, if we had been to lose the $59k degree and shut the weekly under it, that might begin to look extra regarding – actually, I’d anticipate that to result in a parabola break shortly after and thus possible a for much longer interval of consolidation and chop earlier than continuation increased. One factor so as to add right here can also be that there’s nothing but indicative of exhaustion on this timeframe: spot quantity is rising and momentum indicators are making higher-highs.
If we drop into the every day, I’ve marked out three eventualities I’m contemplating right here. The primary is probably the most bullish, which is {that a} higher-low was marked out this week at $60.7k, above the $59.2k swing-low, with that bullish engulfing resulting in the formation of a higher-low within the subsequent few days above $61k, after which a breakout and reclaim of $69k, turning that into help earlier than worth discovery. The second situation is that regardless of the bullish engulfing, worth right this moment has rejected on the prior all-time highs and failed to make use of that momentum to interrupt above $68.9k, rejecting and turning decrease. This might mark out a lower-high inside this construction and result in a flush of this week’s low, inflicting a small liquidation cascade via $59.2k into $58k earlier than a pointy reversal begins from there again in the direction of all-time highs in April, retaining the parabola intact. The third situation is that we proceed to fall from right here via $61k, type one other lower-high under $65k after which break the parabola, closing under $58k – this extra bearish trajectory would result in an extended interval of consolidation and chop, with costs probably going as little as $48k earlier than marking out a backside in summer season after which starting a brand new parabola from there into worth discovery and past. Actually, at current I’ve no certainty on any of those three, but when we begin to shut the every day under $64.9k and switch that degree into resistance intra-week, I’d anticipate the second situation to change into the more than likely, liquidating a bunch of keen longs that jumped in after that bullish engulfing. I believe the longer consolidation is actually believable, however I’m presently leaning in the direction of that being the least possible at current of the three. It’ll change into extra clear if we do get under $61k and see no actual response from bulls…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Value: $3442 (0.05266 BTC)
Market Cap: $413.035bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we are able to see that worth rejected at reclaimed resistance round $3950 after which closed final week simply above $3600, persevering with to dump this week under prior help at $3580 into $3034, earlier than bouncing and now consolidating round $3440. There may be completely nothing bearish about this construction on the weekly, with rising quantity and momentum with no indicators of exhaustion. At current, this appears to be like like a typical pull-back following 6 weeks of rallying. In actual fact, we might pull again into $2721 and type a higher-low there and it will nonetheless look fairly good on this timeframe. That mentioned, I don’t suppose the market goes to be sort sufficient to reward you $2700, however it illustrate the purpose of ETH’s structural energy right here. If we drop into the every day, I’ve marked out the 2 eventualities I’m right here, which will probably be decided by BTC I’d picture. The bearish situation which does grant you $2700 and a interval of consolidation and re-accumulation is probably going if BTC/USD does break the parabola and lose $58k. The sharper restoration is extra possible right here, for my part, and we’ve got already taken out that lengthy wick into $3284 and trapped breakdown shorts, in addition to liquidated plenty of longs, so I’d be on the lookout for the formation of a higher-low this week above $3284, following by continuation via $3580 subsequent week into contemporary yearly highs in early April, particularly given how ETH shrugged off the SEC headlines yesterday. Provided that we shut the every day under $3284 do I believe this v-recovery doesn’t happen.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see that worth offered off final week from the open into the shut proper above the 360wMA at 00.053 and this week discovered resistance at that weekly open, dumping into help at 0.051 and bouncing, now consolidating between the 2 ranges. While this doesn’t look fairly, it additionally doesn’t look ugly – it simply appears to be like just like the worst chop of all time. We have now one thing of a sweep of the latest swing-low into demand and worth trying prefer it needs to carry 0.051 right here. If it may possibly’t, and we shut the weekly under 0.051, then it appears to be like ugly, and we’ll possible want one other deep flush of 0.049 into 0.046 earlier than an actual backside types. If, nonetheless, help holds right here, then we’re simply ready for that weekly lose via the trendline and for it to then maintain as help the next week. Trying on the every day, we are able to see that worth broke under native trendline resistance this week on that dump into 0.051 and is now retesting 0.0533 as resistance. This would be the key take a look at over the subsequent day or two: reject right here and switch decrease and I believe it’s unlikely 0.051 is holding once more, and we’ll see the pair 5% decrease from there; if, nonetheless, we are able to break and shut again above that degree, I believe we take one other stab at that trendline.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Value: $178.18 (0.002726 BTC)
Market Cap: $79.248bn
Ideas: Starting with SOL/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth closed final week at contemporary yearly highs, simply shy of the September 2021 excessive at $213 and the 78.6% fib of the bear market. This week has seen a small pull-back off that space into the 61.8% fib at $170, with worth wicking under it into $162 and discovering help. I might see this pulling again so far as $140 earlier than marking out a backside, if the remainder of the market is shifting decrease, and the pair would nonetheless look unbelievable. If we drop into the every day, we are able to see the parabolic advance from the December 2022 lows and the steepening of the rally this previous couple of weeks. Regardless of this, momentum indicators are displaying no indicators of exhaustion on the latest push increased into $212, and this presently simply appears to be like like a textbook reset earlier than continuation increased. If we do take out $162, I’d anticipate plenty of demand to step in above $144 and mark out a backside, from which the pair begins the leg into all-time highs. This might really even consolidate for just a few weeks with out breaking that parabolic advance. So long as it holds, new all-time highs earlier than Might is more than likely.
Turning to SOL/BTC, we are able to see that worth could be very tightly holding to its parabolic curve right here, pushing off help at 0.00207 final week into contemporary yearly highs, closing across the 61.8% fib of the bear market at 0.003. This week has seen a minor retracement off that degree, however nothing to counsel a break of the parabola simply but. We do have some indicators of attainable exhaustion up right here, however nothing concrete at current: this might simply bounce subsequent week above 0.0026 and proceed increased into 0.00377 after that with the parabola intact. If it does maintain, we’re contemporary highs in summer season. Dropping into the every day, we are able to see that worth swept the 0.0029 excessive and located resistance, with that degree now capping worth. If we do see continuation decrease off this degree, I’d be on the lookout for that prior resistance at 0.00244 to behave as help, main to a different breakout try past 0.003. Actually, nothing majorly bearish in any respect on this timeframe. Simply search for a higher-low formation and bid till the parabola breaks.
Fantom:
FTM/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
FTM/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Value: $1.07 (1632 satoshis)
Market Cap: $3.004bn
Ideas: Starting with FTM/USD, we are able to see on the weekly that the pair has been marching forwards this previous few weeks, rallying via the 200wMA and turning it into help at $0.55 earlier than breaking multi-year resistance at $0.64. This latter degree additionally grew to become help as worth pushed increased, with this previous week seeing the pair rally via a cluster of resistance under $1 into $1.14, the place it did reject. So long as we are able to shut the weekly above $1, I’d anticipate continuation increased over the subsequent few weeks right here in the direction of the 38.2% fib of the bear market and prior resistance between $1.51-1.66. Momentum indicators are additionally displaying no indicators of slowing down simply but. Dropping into the every day, we are able to see that there was some divergence on the previous few pushes into resistance, and in basic bull market vogue these had been invalidated as worth closed via $0.98 and turned it into help, marking out a higher-high on RSI. From right here, I’m anticipating to see some extra consolidation between $0.91-1.1.14 over the subsequent week or so earlier than one other leg increased into $1.50 in early April.
Turning to FTM/BTC, we are able to see that weekly construction is confirmed as bullish with a collection of higher-highs and higher-lows because the October 2023 backside formation. The previous couple of weeks have seen the pair battle at 1309 satoshis, wicking into the 200wMA at 1422 satoshis however rejecting and shutting under that degree twice. This previous week worth has lastly broke via the resistance cluster, rallying into the subsequent main resistance at 1730 satoshis, with momentum additionally pointing increased. From right here, so long as we shut the week above 1400 satoshis, I’d anticipate worth to consolidate just a little after which run via 1900 satoshis into the 23.6% fib of the bear market and main help turned resistance round 2420 satoshis, which is the place I’d anticipate a neighborhood prime to start forming. Until we now shut again inside 1308, the pattern appears to be like very sturdy. Dropping briefly into the every day, we are able to see how some consolidation right into a breakout would possibly look, however the principle factor to remove right here is that the 360dMA is now help and there aren’t any indicators of momentum exhaustion up right here. I’m a Fantom bull for the foreseeable future.
Illuvium:
ILV/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ILV/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Value: $130.03 (0.001989 BTC)
Market Cap: $822.166mn
Ideas: Starting with ILV/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has bottomed out and has shaped sturdy bullish construction, with the next excessive via $120 a few weeks in the past into $162. Value then consolidated and has since flipped $121 into help, which is holding at current. I’d now anticipate to see the subsequent leg increased start from right here via $162 into contemporary yearly highs,, with fairly actually no resistance between there and the 200% fib extension of the pattern round prior help at $240-260. Invalidation can be a weekly shut again under that $108 degree that had capped worth for over a yr. Dropping into the every day, we are able to see how sturdy every day construction is right here and, while we did have some divergence on the latest push increased, I imagine this has performed out on the dump earlier this week. We should always now see a higher-low type above $120 and worth to proceed via from there in the direction of $260 within the subsequent few weeks.
Turning to ILV/BTC, we are able to see that the pair has spent the majority of its existence in a downtrend, however following the all-time low formation at 0.00124 in October 2023, the pair rallied increased, reclaiming help at 0.0016 and turning weekly construction bullish. Value marked out a neighborhood increased at 0.0033, and has since retraced into 0.0016, which has held as reclaimed help for the very best a part of 2024. We at the moment are range-bound between that help and prior help turned resistance at 0.00224, and I’d anticipate upside decision of this vary given the weekly construction. If we get a weekly shut via 0.00224, that could be a very clear sign to purchase spot with invalidation at 0.0015, seeking to maintain for a cycle, with a serious goal at 0.01.
LooksRare:
LOOKS/USD
Each day:
LOOKS/BTC
Each day:
Value: $0.131 (200 satoshis)
Market Cap: $130.877mn
Ideas: As each pairs for LooksRare look just about the identical given the relative lack of worth historical past, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
LOOKS/USD, we are able to see how worth has just lately rallied via the 200dMA and 360dMA that had been capping costs, with the latter by no means having been traded above prior besides a faux out in December 2023. We pushed increased and reclaimed help at $0.11 earlier than worth discovered resistance at a yearly excessive round $0.187. We have now since retraced into $0.11, which is presently holding as help, and the broader pattern is now pointing increased, with a collection of higher-highs and higher-lows, in addition to the beginnings of a parabolic advance. I’d anticipate to see the subsequent leg increased for LOOKS start from right here, taking the pair via $0.19 in the direction of main resistance at $0.46, the place the two.618 extension of the present pattern can also be sat. The craziest factor, nonetheless, is how far off the highs we’re – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market doesn’t even become visible till $1.65, with the 38.2% fib at crucial prior help turned resistance round $2.60. That latter degree is the place I’m seeking to maintain this to, given the truth that LOOKS has by no means traded a bull cycle. I’ll look to exit most of my place round that degree both late this yr or early subsequent and maintain just a little for a possible moon-shot at all-time highs. For the short-term, so long as we maintain above $0.09 this appears to be like positive for increased costs…
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. Again to full size subsequent week!
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions under, or e-mail me immediately at [email protected].
