Market Outlook #262 (third April 2024)
Whats up and welcome to the 262nd instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s put up, I will likely be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Polygon, Optimism, Casper and Realio.
As ever, if in case you have any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know by way of e mail or within the feedback.
Bitcoin:
Month-to-month:
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by wanting on the month-to-month chart for BTC/USD, we are able to see that final month was the very best ever shut for Bitcoin on essentially the most quantity in over a yr, closing firmly by way of $69k into $71.3k. That is – as I’m certain you might be conscious – not bearish. Taking a look at this timeframe, so long as we maintain above $58kish in April, this nonetheless appears to be like tremendous bullish for the approaching quarter. If April closes beneath $58k, we’ve a bit extra of a problem, because it appears to be like extra like a false breakout than an actual one, however with this quantity profile and construction I’m leaning closely in direction of the notion that every one April dips are for getting. Trying forward, so long as we do maintain above $58k, I feel we see $100k traded by Q3, and we are able to see why within the weekly chart…
Trying on the weekly, the very first thing to level out is that regardless of 4 weeks of consolidation round these all-time highs the parabolic advance stays intact, and we may proceed to consolidate for a few weeks but with out breaking it. Weekly momentum indicators proceed to level to larger costs with no exhaustion seen but, and on the worst – so long as the parabola holds – I feel we see a pointy wick beneath $61k into $59k after which bounce larger quickly from there. The extra bullish state of affairs right here is the formation of a higher-low this week above $61k that results in one other stab at all-time highs subsequent week, resulting in an eventual breakout earlier than Could and subsequent worth discovery, with the rallies getting sharper from there in direction of $100k by July.
Sooner or later that parabola will break: it’ll both be quickly, and we’ll see an extended consolidation by way of summer time earlier than reversal possible late in Q3 going into the election cycle; or in a number of months time, after which I don’t know the way the cycle would play out from a parabolic break of say $140k. If we have a look at the each day, we are able to see that some kind of ascending triangle is at present forming into these all-time highs and above the curve of the parabola. If we shut the each day beneath that, that is likely to be an early indicator of misplaced momentum and due to this fact the start of a bigger transfer down, possible in direction of that $49-53k vary in a number of weeks time. If, nonetheless, we proceed to type higher-lows right here into mid-April I feel we push by way of $74k and start the subsequent leg. The liquidation cascade state of affairs can be a pointy wick by way of $61k that results in a push into $59k – possible within the subsequent week or so – earlier than a tough v-reversal leaving late shorts trapped and liquidated longs chasing worth larger. Let’s see how this week closes out…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we are able to see that the pair is consolidating beneath $3580 resistance, closing marginally above it final week however on low quantity in a decent vary – and early this week promoting off from that open again in direction of the prior low at $3057. For now, the pair is holding above that low, however I feel its trajectory relies upon BTC/USD over the subsequent week or two. If we drop into the each day for readability, we are able to see how a lower-high has fashioned beneath $3726, however worth is at present discovering assist and $3222 – the early March low. If this assist holds for the remainder of the week, I can see continuation larger by way of $3726 to invalidate the decrease excessive subsequent week. Now, if we shut beneath $3222, I’d anticipate $3057 to be taken out. What occurs afterwards is reaction-dependent: if we sweep $3057 and shut again above it, then pushing sharply again above $3222, I feel we mark a backside and proceed larger from there; if as an alternative we shut beneath $3057 and that stage acts as resistance, the pair is more likely to return to $2735 earlier than a backside is discovered. I’m at present leaning in direction of one of many first two eventualities, as until $59k falls for BTC/USD, I can’t see us getting $2735 for ETH.
Turning to ETH/BTC, this pair appears to be like significantly woeful and anaemic after the previous week or two of grinding decrease, and we at the moment are pushing beneath the final line of defence at 0.051. If we shut beneath this stage, I feel it’s possible we take out the yearly low at 0.0478 into 0.0461. If we shut the week above 0.051 like we’ve the final couple of weeks, that might present some power from bulls and we could be marking out a really uneven native backside. It’s onerous to get enthusiastic about ETH when the BTC pair is wanting like this, however I’m certain we’ll get some sense of route within the subsequent couple of weeks…
Cardano:
ADA/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ADA/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Starting with ADA/USD, on the weekly we are able to see that worth has rallied again to the 200wMA, discovering resistance at $0.75 for 3 weeks earlier than rejecting and transferring decrease, now at marginally again beneath resistance at $0.60, which was performing as assist. Now we have momentum exhaustion right here as properly, supporting the concept that Cardano is an underperformer right here, and I’d anticipate worth to drift again in direction of $0.47 if we shut beneath $0.60 this week. Dropping into the each day, we are able to see how $0.68 acted as reclaimed resistance after breaking again beneath it, and now construction is firmly bearish, with no signal of exhaustion simply but. If reject off of $0.60 as reclaimed resistance this week, I’m taking a look at a return to that 200dMA and prior resistance turned assist at $0.47-0.49. If bulls in some way flip up right here, I feel that is solely an extended again above $0.68, trying to purchase that as resistance turned assist and commerce it larger into $0.90.
Turning to ADA/BTC, we are able to see that worth rejected at 1588 satoshis and has been trending decrease all yr, retracing the whole rally from the October 2023 backside again into assist right here at 858,. Now that is rather more supportive for some aid for Cardano, given the response off this stage late final yr, but when we shut the weekly beneath 858 that might be disastrous, with one other 20% drop into the subsequent assist at 700 satoshis. If we do discover assist right here once more, which will present confluence if the Greenback pair can get again above that $0.68 stage for continuation larger.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MATIC/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth is sat on trendline assist from the October 2023 backside and hovering above the 200wMA, having pushed beneath reclaimed assist at $0.92 this week. MATIC bulls wish to see this space maintain agency and worth to push again above $0.92 for the weekly shut, which is able to then look extra like a sweep of native lows into main assist and sure a higher-low type continuation in direction of $1.31 and past. If, nonetheless, $0.92 begins to behave as resistance subsequent week, and we break beneath that trendline, I’d anticipate to see one other close to 20% of draw back in direction of $0.74 as the subsequent main assist. If we drop into the each day, we see comparable construction to ADA/USD with no indicators of pattern exhaustion simply but, opening up the chance of that bigger transfer decrease into $0.74, with the 200dMA and 360dMA hovering above that. If we are able to catch a bid right here and push again above $1, that’s a pleasant lengthy for the $1.31 retest, with a view to hedge there and reopen on acceptance above that stage.
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we are able to see simply how poorly this has carried out, breaking beneath multi-year assist and turning it into resistance, then grinding decrease for weeks, now sat in no man’s land at 1350 satoshis. There isn’t any main assist beneath this all the way in which into 948. There are additionally no indicators but of pattern exhaustion right here. If something, you possible wish to maintain off any spot purchases till 1720 satoshis is reclaimed as assist or worth trades into that 948 stage. Not engaging in any respect right here.
Optimism:
OP/USD
Each day:
OP/BTC
Each day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Focusing right here on OP/USD, given the comparatively quick price-history of Optimism, we are able to see that worth fashioned an all-time excessive in March round $4.92, from which level it has retraced, breaking again beneath prior highs turned resistance at $4.24 after which pushing into assist at $3, above which it at present sits. Construction is bearish right here, as is momentum, however we’ve the beginnings of some exhaustion on the Superior Oscillator. Nonetheless, I do assume this continues to puke in direction of the 200dMA, possible sweeping the swing-low into $2.56 earlier than marking out a backside. So long as we don’t shut beneath $2.33, I feel this nonetheless simply appears to be like like a broad vary above historic resistance turned assist; shut beneath that and this appears to be like rather more bearish. If we are able to mark out a backside above $2.56, I’m on the lookout for $5.80 as the subsequent goal for my spot holdings.
Casper:
CSPR/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
CSPR/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at CSPR/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has been in a broad vary for nearly two years now, with newer worth motion confined between assist at $0.031 and assist turned resistance at $0.055. We’re again on the backside of that shallower vary inside the broader vary and that is largely simply chop at current. Casper was born within the bear market and has solely identified a downtrend and an extended flat consolidation, so it’s most likely value shopping for partials near vary assist and including to your place on a clear weekly shut by way of $0.054, if in case you have elementary conviction on this undertaking. Above $0.054, I feel the primary bull cycle is more likely to start, and I wouldn’t expect something lower than $0.226 as a primary goal, however possible costs past $0.36 given it has by no means skilled a bull cycle.
Turning to CSPR/BTC, not like the Greenback pair that is nonetheless in its long-term downtrend since inception, with latest worth motion breaking beneath prior all-time lows at 83 satoshis and pushing into 63, earlier than turning that into resistance and now sitting at 52 satoshis. Now we have the makings of minor pattern exhaustion right here however we’re very a lot in bearish worth discovery. I’d be on the lookout for construction and momentum to point out us clear indicators of bullishness earlier than stepping in to be trustworthy. If we drop into the each day, this might take the type of a trendline breakout adopted by a reclaim of 63 satoshis as assist, which might make for a pleasant entry. If we break beneath 52, there isn’t a figuring out the place this stops.
Realio:
RIO/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
RIO/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Starting with RIO/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has been in a powerful uptrend since November 2022, persevering with to carry to a parabolic advance, with final week seeing the pair push by way of the ultimate resistance stage at $2.74 on enormous quantity into $5.61, however in the end reject and shut again inside $2.73. Momentum indicators don’t present indicators on exhaustion right here and fairly I anticipate we see a few weeks of consolidation right here earlier than the breakout is validated and worth continues to run larger in direction of the all-time highs at $10.72 within the subsequent couple of months. So long as the parabola holds, there isn’t a have to anticipate something apart from what we’ve already been seeing. If we break the parabola, it’s possible we get a deeper correction in direction of $0.99 earlier than any continuation.
Turning to RIO/BTC, we are able to see that weekly construction is firmly bullish and final week noticed worth shut by way of a cluster of resistance on nice quantity and with new highs on momentum indicators, discovering resistance round 5772 satoshis and now consolidating between there and reclaimed assist at 1836. As talked about above, I’d anticipate continued consolidation right here earlier than a weekly shut by way of 5772, which would be the catalyst for the steepest a part of the parabola, with no resistance between there and all-time highs. On this chart, that’s marked out as 96k satoshis, however I feel it is a misprint – both method, above 6k satoshis, I feel you’re successfully in worth discovery mode for the BTC pair. So long as this holds above 1155 construction can also be nonetheless bullish, so there’s plenty of draw back we may see earlier than any break in construction.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be at liberty to depart any feedback or questions beneath, or e mail me straight at [email protected].
